BEIJING, February 28 (TMTPOST) The Baltic Dry Index, a key leading indicator for global trade known as the BDI, made its largest gain since June 2020 driven by the recovering demand of China's economy.
The BDI surged 21.07 percent to 816 points on Thursday, its biggest rise in one day since mid-June 2020.
Among them, the Baltic Capesize Index, which is mainly used to transport iron ore and coal, rose 46.92 percent to 573 points.
As a barometer of dry bulk trade, the BDI has been considered a leading indicator for observing the world economy by many international organizations. The index is published by the Baltic Shipping Exchange, which is a composite index that shows the price changes of Capesize, Panamax, and super compact and compact dry bulk carriers.
After the Spring Festival holiday, the BDI saw its first round of gains. In the five consecutive trading days from last Monday to Friday, the BDI rose by 2.60%, 7.61%, 13.47%, 21.07%, and 8.21%, respectively, and rose by about 64% in a week to close at 883 points.
Financial analysts said that the rise was mainly driven by grain shipments, with traders restocking after last year's supply shock, a bumper soybean harvest in Brazil and unsold grain stocks in the United States boosting confidence, and fast-rising rentals of small and medium-sized vessels such as Panamax and super compact models. Last Friday, the average daily rent for a typical 82,000-ton Panamax vessel was $11,439, up 47% week on week. The average daily rental for a typical 58,000-ton ultra-convenient ship was $10,950, up 43% from the previous week.
A researcher at the Shanghai Shipping Exchange said that the peak of the pandemic has passed in China. After the Lantern Festival (February 5), the resumption of work and production in infrastructure and other sectors is accelerating. Confidence in the real estate sector is also rebuilding. The average daily rent of a typical 180,000 tons Capesize vessel returned to $5,271 on Friday, up 135% week on week.
Previously, the shipping of dry bulk cargo continued to adjust for nearly two months due to the spreading of coronavirus in China and the impact of the Christmas and China's Spring Festival holiday. The BDI fell to 530 points on Feb. 16, down about 70% from before the Christmas holiday, the lowest point since June 2020. The BDI fell 17.49 percent on January 3, its biggest one-day percentage drop since records began in 1984.
China is still playing a key role in unlocking market demand, and the previous adjustment of the BDI and the recent increase are closely related to the Chinese New Year holiday.
With the upcoming two sessions in March, the annual meetings of the legislature and political advisory body of China, many senior figures expect the Chinese government to release more economic stimulus policies, and support infrastructure to boost demand recovery for iron ore and coal, which will further raise the BDI freight index.
Rio Tinto, the world's largest iron ore producer, said recently that it is "quietly confident" that the market will improve following the abandoning of China's zero-COVID policy.
